A forecast of how likely it is that curtailment of generators will be issued in the Orkney Active Network Management system (ANM). Like a weather forecast, but just with curtailment instead. It can be used to get an overview of the next five days, and the idea is to incorporate this service with power hungry devices, to schedule the tasks for times where energy is in excess. Currently, it is simply a demonstration of our models and hopefully it can help make the ANM curtailment system a little more understandable for the orcadians affected by it.
How does it work?
Through a bunch of data collection and analysis, we have created a model that estimates curtailment based on wind speeds, day-of-week, and time-of-day. We then combine this model with the weather forecasts for Westray Airfield generated by the UK Met Office to make forecasts of whether curtailment will happen a certain times in the future. The data for training the model have been collected through SSEN's ANM website, and wind speed data generated by a single turbine in Orkney.
The risk assesment is done statistically by looking at the historical chance of curtailment according to model output. This means that when the forecasts says "0% risk of curtailment", it simply means that historically there has been no curtailment when the model gave this output. But there's a first time for everything.